Notes on Theme and Celebration Horses

Every year, as BreyerFest reveals trickle in, the hobby is met with the same questions and complaints. 

"Why is the Celebration Model on that mold?" 

"The Celebration Horse looks like that other model!!"

"Why don't the Special Run models fit the theme?" 

"The Surprise Horse HAS to be this mold because the name is X"

So, let's talk about how and why these choices are usually made! 

The Celebration Horse and Mold Choices

Let's start with the Celebration Horse. Why does Breyer make the choices they do? Well, the horse chosen will have broad appeal - a famous rider (Will Coleman, Buck Davidson) or a story that fits the theme (Oliver, Athenian Lady). Sometimes, it's both - for Celtic Fling in 2020, Ballynoe Castle RM was an Irish Sport Horse gelding ridden by Buck Davidson. This year's Corgi Hill Flinka is a Norwegian Fjord for the Scandinavian themed BreyerFest. 

Additionally, the paint jobs are usually simple - solids or patterns that can be easily translated to masking. In both 2024 and 2025, there were 13,000 produced of the Celebration Model - they need to be on the relatively simple side for production. Dani in 2021 is the exception, likely due to the extenuating circumstances surrounding the Celebration Horse that year. Let's break down the past few Celebration Models: 

The past decade of Celebration Horses, by color and pattern

In the last ten years, just three of the Celebration Models have been patterned. Solids are easier to produce and have less room for masking error. Also, it's just a general fact that most horses are solid. Therefore, when you are making portrait models, it's likely that the well-known horse is a solid. 

As a related tangent, horses come in a variety of shades, yes. However, due to breed standards, most breeds have a handful of colors/patterns that are acceptable in those breeds. Most Warmbloods will be in shades of bay. Quarter Horses are going to mostly be bay and chestnut. Fjords come in five shades of dun. When Breyer has only a select number of molds that work for each breed, it is inevitable that one portrait model may look like another. 

Speaking of molds, it's a well-known fact that the owner picks the mold used for the portrait model. In the video announcing Tight Lines as the Celebration Model last year, they talked about the Cigar mold representing Phish's stride in the cross-country phase. Sjoerd's owner chose the Iberian variation of the Vanner mold to represent her horse's medical history that required his feathers to be shaved rather than one of Breyer's Friesian molds. 

I've also seen complaints about the Celebration Model not matching the real horse enough. Part of this is due to the translation from a real horse to a mass-produced plastic model. Paint cannot fully represent fur. The colors can be approximated, but due to the nature of production it may not be exact. Additionally, Breyer works closely with the owner of the mold to create a representation they approve of - and I know of at least one portrait model where the owner requested the model be changed before it went into production to better represent their horse. Essentially, if the horse is in production, then the owner thinks it is a good representation of their horse. To put it bluntly, the rest of our opinions on the subject don't matter. 

What's In a Theme?

The most common complaint I see every year by far is the Special Run models not matching the theme. I covered this lightly in my 2026 Special Run Speculation, but I'd like to go more in depth on it. 

Basically, if you want and expect the Special Runs to completely match the theme 100% every year, expect to be disappointed. In fact, those expectations should be curbed entirely. It is something that will probably never happen. 

But why? Why, you ask? Because Breyer is a business, and at its heart, a business must make money. BreyerFest Special Run models have to sell. The business needs to make money. Therefore, the Special Runs must appeal to the widest portion of their consumer base. Basically, there needs to be something for everyone. 

Breyer at this point has developed a formula for the Special Run lineup: 

• Vintage mold
• Animal mold 
• At least two, if not all three of the previous year's Premier Club molds (the third may show up as a guest horse portrait) 
• A decorator
• The Surprise model
• A mane/tail variation and/or color variation
• A glossy/matte variation
• A mare and foal set ** this is often dependent on recent Premier Club molds and may not occur every year, but it is in rotation often enough to make a note

You can also expect at least one stock horse to be available somewhere in the lineup regardless of the theme. The same goes for a sport horse. Hunter/jumper, eventing, and western events are by far the most common horse sports in the US, and therefore sport and stock breeds are the most popular breeds of horse. The average horse lover who attends BreyerFest will want to see one of them in the lineup available to purchase. If Special Runs don't appeal to ticket buyers, then they won't buy All-Access or VIP tickets to obtain them, thus Breyer makes less money. This same logic is why not all models are available to online ticket holders - there needs to be an incentive to attend BreyerFest in person.  

So if Breyer must cast a wide net of Special Run models, then why have a theme? Well, the theme can still be incorporated into the Special Run models, and has been through the name of the model. Take this year's theme: Midsummer Fair. While none of the molds used reflect Scandinavian breeds, all are named after aspects of Scandinavian culture. The theme is more of a guideline, a way to unify the Special Runs and have guest horses with things in common. 

You'll notice that the portrait Limited Edition models are all Scandinavian breeds - an Icelandic, a Gotland, and a Knabstrupper. Remember a large percentage of people who come to BreyerFest are not hobbyists, but are families with children. They can meet the horses and buy the models based on them - they aren't paywalled by ticket type, the Limited Edition models are accessible to all BreyerFest attendees. It makes the most sense to have the Special Runs cover collector's tastes (with them only available on the more expensive tickets), while Limited Editions cover the general public as well (since they are available to everyone). Breyer wants to sell models, and appealing to everyone is how. 

Let's have a quick chat about event planning, production time, and announcement timelines as well. Keep in mind that by the time the BreyerFest theme is announced, several months of planning is likely already in the works. The Celebration Horse has been announced in late fall the past few years, with a factory production prototype already in hand. This means that by the time the theme is announced, most of the event planning and guest horse selection has already happened and is moving into production phases. 

The same goes for the Special Runs. I took a look at the VINs on the post-pandemic (2022-present) BreyerFest Special Runs, Celebration Models, and Limited Editions I have. They uniformly have VIN dates of February or March of their respective years, with a handful having dates into April. This means that those models were painted and finished by February of that year, around the time the announcements are being made. 

VIN from the 2025 Criollo Special Run "Future is Bright" 

VIN from the 2022 Celebration Horse Nikolas

This means the production timeline of the models is not necessarily aligned with the event planning schedule of BreyerFest, and in fact it's likely the Special Runs are being developed independently of the theme, and then named to fit. 

So, why even have a theme if the Special Runs aren't going to match up? Because it's fun! It gives a unique jumping off point for naming the Special Runs, and lets Breyer incorporate new guest horses every year. We're there for the model horses - I don't know anyone who bases their attendance purely off the theme itself. By the time tickets go on sale, we know the majority of the exclusive models that will be available at BreyerFest, and that's usually the deciding factor in my experience. 

The Surprise Horse and Its Patterns

There is one final thing I'd like to cover in this post, although it's less directly connected to the theme, and that is the surprise horse speculation. For those less aware, every year Breyer has a gambler's choice Special Run. When it is announced, we only know the name of the model. We don't know the mold or the colors, and we don't find out until the first people go through the Special Run line on Friday morning at BreyerFest, buy their Surprises, and open them. 

Naturally, the months between each BreyerFest are filled with wild speculation as to what the mold will be. 

There are a few hard and fast rules for eliminating a mold from surprise contention. 

1. The mold will not be a vintage mold. 
2. The mold will not have a new release in the same year as BreyerFest (Regular Run, Web Special, somewhere else in the BreyerFest lineup, etc.).
3. The mold is on the popular side. 
4. The mold has not been used for the Surprise before.
5. The mold was not used for the previous year's BreyerFest.

There are a few looser rules as well: 

1. The mold will not be a pair of horses (parent/foal).
2. The mold will not be a pony (the smallest mold used thus far is Flash, and while he is large pony sized, he was sculpted as a Morgan).
3. The mold is not a draft (the closest we've come is the Cleveland Bay).

The chart above lists the entire history of the mold use for the surprise run. One important thing to note is that the Quarter Horse Gelding in 2009 is an outlier when considering molds for the surprise. His mold was 50 at the time of use, and it was the first year a surprise Special Run was used at BreyerFest. He marked an anniversary year for the mold, and essentially he was a test run for the concept of a gambler's choice Special Run (circling back to event planning - this chart makes it crystal clear how early Special Run planning must start: the surprise horse wasn't a Special Run in 2010, and only became an annual addition to the lineup starting in 2011, once they knew the demand for the concept was there and that the models would sell). 

The most important consideration when selecting the Surprise Horse mold is likely "will it sell?" Since the run is split among various colors and finishes, the piece count on the Surprise is the largest. In 2026, the run size is 7,800. The Surprise is always available to both in-person and online BreyerFest guests. Therefore, it has to be something that people will want to buy, or grab to resell. Breyer does not want to be stuck with these taking up space in the warehouse to put in grab bags for years to come. They want to move the product. The mold HAS to be something that will sell, and honestly there is a short list of vintage models that would (it's the Fighter, the Proud Arabian Mare, Lady Phase and maybe the Semi-Rearing Mustang). 

Every year, there's at least one mold that people believe is the Surprise mold because of "theme." Or, because of the name bestowed on the Surprise. It's very rare that the two actually line up. If we look at the chart, we have roughly three who have somewhat fit the theme (CC Shuffle Roxy - Western themed BreyerFest, 2016 Samba Surprise Esprit - Brazilian themed BreyerFest, 2018 Dark Horse Surprise Smarty Jones - Racing themed BreyerFest) and two who have fit the name (2011 Spun Gold Ethereal - various shades of gold, 2024 Girls Run the World Emerson - on the mare variation of the mold). That's five out of sixteen Surprises who align with the event theme or the name, or 31% total. This disparity is because usually the person who designs the Surprise and chooses the mold is not the same person who names the model - and it's a double blind. Neither knows what the other has picked. This is how you end up with a Latigo for the India themed BreyerFest, or a racking Hamilton for the Stagecoach Surprise. 

Cost is the other consideration to take into account with Surprise Horse speculation - the Surprise is usually the most expensive horse in the Special Run lineup. This means people expect a model that is worth the money - hence why a pony mold is extremely unlikely. I could see one of the larger pony molds eventually being used in the future, but smaller pony molds would cause too much griping about the cost not being worth it. Additionally, with the Christmas Day gamblers choice mold often being a large pony, I find it even more unlikely that a pony mold will be used any time soon. The inverse is true for a draft mold - while I wouldn't completely rule the use of one out, I think the production cost versus the model cost may be slightly too unbalanced for a draft mold surprise. 

Overall, I don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but it can be frustrating to see the constant complaints about the Celebration Horse or the Special Runs not matching the theme. I'm a person who goes to BreyerFest to see my friends, and to buy pretty model horses. I'm less concerned about theme because that's not a factor in whether or not I go to BreyerFest. I'm going regardless, because BreyerFest!