BreyerFest 2025 Variation Split Speculation

A quick blog post today, just because I want to get in writing my thoughts on the splits before Breyer reveals the actual numbers. 

As an anniversary year, multiple variations were expected to appear in the BreyerFest Special Runs. Indeed, most of the Special Runs had a split! Three models did not have a split - Life's a Journey (the Collie), Good Times and Great Friends (the mare and foal), and Hats Off To You (the Old Timer). Without further ado, let's get into the predictions! 

It's worth noting that all but three variations were revealed on the Breyer live broadcast, so that gives us an additional idea of rarity. 

Get This Party Started

Get This Party Started is a black frame overo on the Connemara Mare (Croi) mold. She is a run of 2,300, and was only available to in-person ticketholders. She has two color variations - a buckskin and a blue color shift. The buckskin was revealed on the BreyerFest live broadcast, but the blue color shift was not. I have also seen significantly less of the blue. I've also seen less of the buckskin than the black, but not significantly. I previously was of the mindset that the "micro runs" would be 100-200 pieces, but the more I'm observing, I think the run might in fact be 75 each. I'm thinking 60-40 for the remaining two colors. 

Prediction: 1,335 black, 890 buckskin, 75 blue color shift

Let The Good Times Roll 

Let The Good Times Roll is a glossy sooty buckskin leopard appaloosa on the loose mane version of the Show Jumping Warmblood mold. He was available to all ticket holders, and is a run of 2,500. He only has one variation - a matte version on the braided version of the Show Jumping Warmblood mold. I'm guessing 60-40 for this variation as well, but I would not be surprised if it was 75-25. 

Prediction: 1,500 glossy loose mane, 1,000 matte braided mane

To The Ties That Bind Us 

To The Ties That Bind Us is a Wedgewood apploosa with Breyer silhouettes in the blanket pattern, done on the Silver mold. He is a run of 2,200 pieces, and was available to all ticket holders. Like Get This Party Started, To The Ties That Bind Us has two color variations - a gold version and a silver version. I'm thinking he's split along the same lines as the Croi, so we'll say 75 for the silver variation and a 60-40 split of the remainder. 

Prediction: 1,275 blue, 850 gold, 75 silver 

YOLO

YOLO is a dapple gray on the Vanner mold. He is a run of 2,400 pieces, and was only available to in-person ticket holders. He is the third and final special run with a third variation. His revealed variation was a belly spot variation, and his micro run was a holographic colorway reminiscent of 2021's holographic Uffington. Like the other two, we'll be going 75 for the holographic and 60-40 for the remainder. 

Prediction: 1,395 solid, 930 belly spot, 75 holographic

Future is Bright 

Future is Bright is a palomino on the new Criollo mold. He introduces the long mane variation of the mold. He is limited to 2,200 pieces and was available to all ticket holders. He has a mane variation, with part of the run being on the roached mane version of the mold. I'm guessing a straight 50-50 split for this guy. 

Prediction: 1,100 long mane, 1,100 roached mane

Hoopla

Hoopla is a bay tobiano on the Bristol mold. He is a run of 3,000 pieces and was only available in the online BreyerFest store. There is a finish variation on him, with part of the run being glossy. It's still early to tell, as a lot of online orders have not made it to their homes yet, but I've seen significantly less of the glossy. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's a 75-25 split. 

Prediction: 2,250 matte, 750 glossy

Shindig

Shindig is a shaded gray sabino on the Giorgio mold. He is the online exclusive Stablemate, and is a run of 3,000 pieces. He has a fantastic rainbow color variation. Like with Hoopla, it's probably too early to tell, but I'm guessing 75-25 for him as well. 

Prediction: 2,250 gray, 750 rainbow

Seize The Day Surprise

The Seize the Day Surprise this year was on the Totilas mold. It has 7,800 pieces total, and was available to all ticket holders. There were six different colorways for him, with four being available in both matte and glossy. Those four are the silver bay, the sooty palomino, the palomino pinto, and the dapple gray. There was also a blue roan, available only in matte finish, and a blue decorator only available in a glossy finish. I can't begin to guess at exact numbers for these guys, but I'll rank where I think they fall in rarity. 

Prediction: 

• Matte most made to least made: Silver bay, dapple gray, palomino pinto, sooty palomino, blue roan 
• Decorator probably ~600-650 pieces 
• Remainder of glossies an even split, probably around 350-375 of each color 

As I said, I am least certain about the number predictions on the micro runs. 75 seems like a really low number for the scale BreyerFest has grown to since the 30-piece micro runs in 2019. The micro runs in the 2021 and 2023 Special Run lineups were all at least runs of 200. I would not be surprised if my prediction is entirely off and they turn out to be runs of 150-200. 

Hopefully Breyer releases their numbers soon!