BreyerFest 2022 Surprise Horse Speculation

The question that haunts BreyerFest every year - what mold will the Surprise Horse be on? The hobby scours for clues - references to a gender hidden in the copy, speculation based on the theme and the name of the surprise. Sometimes the hobby gets it right - like Smarty Jones as the Dark Horse Surprise during Off to the Races in 2018. Other years, things get weird - see Latigo for Gateway to India in 2017. This year, the theme is "Rotating Draft Surprise." Now, the consensus online seems to be that the mold this year will be a draft mold due to that. However, the name of the surprise isn't necessarily a clue either - last year's 7 Arts Surprise didn't have seven options. Breyer also has not used a draft horse mold for the Gambler's Choice ever. That isn't to say they won't - both a vintage mold (the Quarter Horse Gelding) and a pony mold (Flash) have been used once each, and Breyer has never used either a gaited mold or a light breed. 

By far, the most common mold seen has been a stock mold, constituting five of the surprise molds. Next, sport and Spanish are tied with three uses each, with pony being a distant last with just one use. The mold breakdown is as follows: 

So the most recent mold used was Dundee, a stock horse. It is safe to assume that since Breyer isn't prone to using the same type of mold twice in a row that the mold will not be a stock mold. Likewise, the only vintage mold used was the Quarter Horse Gelding in 2009, the first surprise horse. All molds used since then are relatively popular, modern molds. We can also rule out the molds that have been used as Special Runs from 2020, 2021 and this year, as well as foal molds. 

These eliminations leave us with the following molds: 

* - Multiple mold options

I'll also list the draft mold options not covered in the previous list:

• Belgian 
• Clydesdale Mare
• Clydesdale Stallion 
• Georg (used as a Special Run in 2020, and is a limited edition for BreyerFest 2022)
• Othello (used as a Special Run in 2020) 
• Roy the Belgian
• Shire

Of these options, I think the strongest contenders are: 

• Cleveland Bay: He has multiple manes, he's a popular mold, and he's just drafty enough to fit the theme
• Racking Saddlebred Stallion/Hamilton: He's a popular mold, he's currently in production as Marc of Charm, and he's one of two Premier Club molds that hasn't been used for an obtainable BreyerFest release
• Salinero: He's popular, he's been in production recently, and he's a warmblood sculpted by a German artist, putting him very on theme

Of course, this is all my speculation and I could be very off base. I have a sinking feeling it's going to be Hamilton, which my conga and wallet will not like, but maybe I'll get lucky and it will be something like the Icelandic.